Up, Down and Around Our Town

Thanksgiving week. Truly the American holiday and here's hoping that the essence of the celebration remains true to the cause. An opportunity to get together with friends, family and loved ones to share not only the fruit of the harvest, but also a chance to kick back and simply reflect on the bounty that is ours. That's the simplest way to look at the holiday and it never goes out of style.

But this year there is something different. For the first time in many years, we are viewing an economy and its residents who have significant doubts. Confidence is not high and the uncertainty is driving our habits to much different levels.

As inflation and unemployment continue to grow, the volatility on Wall Street simply moves on and on. While all are waiting for the "bottoming out" of the crisis on Wall Street, it appears that we're not there yet. And with every down day, more doubts occur.

Even the price of a gallon of gas isn't sitting well with everyone. Not that the seeming bargain of $1.75 a gallon ( a number that most of us never thought we would ever see again), but the fact that the residual effect is starting to show its very ugly face. It is nice not spending a Kings Ransom to fill up your tank, but those thoughts are not permeating through the economy. For the simplest of reasons.

Throughout 2008, we witnessed the rise of seemingly everything that we used and needed rise to levels unattainable to the average taxpayer. First the utility companies, who stuck it to the public with great timing and as is their lot, gave the users a take it or leave it option. With no other choices, the higher costs were passed on.

Even now, the munipalities and taxing bodies are looking at record rises in their rates to make up for the downturn. Taxes will rise and may approach 10%. Local schools are strapped, local community colleges are in arrears and anyone doing business with the State is looking at no closer than a 270 day turnaround to be paid for a service that was warranted.

That brings us back to gasoline. This was the one area that people could make a choice. Fill the tank and keep working or cut back on consumption. They did the latter. Food prices shot up 15% just to get the product to the store. Airline tickets went out of sight and the choices of flights shrunk. All signs of a true recession.

And this week we heard from the Big 3. Ford, Chrysler and General Motors. A reeling from a downward spiral that is theirs to own. Union contracts that reward for non-production and makes each company less and less competitive. Inventory of finished cars that no one seemingly wants to buy. Competition from Japan and Korea that is giving the American buyer a reason not to purchase. The honeymoon is over. Having the government bail them out perhaps will happen, but is should be a last resort.

And Christmas. Normally a buying time of the year. Markdowns and sales are going on as we speak, but something funny is happening. Not enough folks are buying. And why? They have spent most of their discretionary income just to keep playing the daily game. The dominoes are dropping from the wholesales to the retailer to the consumer. We just aren't consuming enough. And who's to blame? Start with the oil companies who rode the speculation to record levels and drained the life out of this economy. Blame the bankers who gave doggy loans to people who couldn't quality and inflated the housing market to levels that it couldn't support. Blame Wall Street for being a willing accomplice in this sham and partying like it was 1999 until the bottom fell out.

It would be delightful to think that this is a political disaster. But it isn't. It is an economic disaster and it started on September 11, 2001. And, 7 years later, we are spending $10 billion at a whack to defend a country that doesn't even want us there. We have no allies, no reserve and no plan other than to keep doing what isn't working.

Is Barack Obama the answer? We'll soon find out. The anticipation of his arrival hasn't been seen in almost 100 years politically. The world is watching and we're being laughed at. Restore the confidence, stem the recession, get people back to work and play by the rules. Bail out Wall Street and the Big 3 if necessary and make it damn plain that this will never happen again. But, the status quo will not work.

We live in a country where possibilities are endless. Or so we thought. We question everything out of sense of entitlement and arrogance. We may have to rethink all of those approaches. Or face the real possibilities of everything that we have worked for suddenly becoming worthless. Connecting those dots will be the real test of the new President.

Yet, in this week of Thanksgiving, we have plenty to celebrate. Do it with family and friends, share it with those who are alone and most of all, never lose sight of the many choices that we still have. We'll share some dressing and turkey with our little hero this week and that fact alone is worth everything. And this year, for the first in many, we may venture out on Black Friday to get a sense of what is going on, spend a few dollars and come home with the realization that change will occur whether we like it or not. Maybe the wake-up call will be worth it.

So, till next week, Happy Thanksgiving to all. We'll return in a week with both an update and a few other thoughts. As always, I remain....